Futurology

Futurology is commonly known as future studies. Futurology is the study of the future. It is an analytical and reasoned out prediction of future. It is the discipline of exploring possible ends that the beginnings of today and yesterday will transform into. There is confusion as to the nature of the discipline. Some call it a science and some wants to call it art. However, in general it can be considered as a branch of social science. It is also considered as parallel to history as futurology studies the future the same way history studies the past. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futurology, and futurism. Futures studies and strategic foresight are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world. Predicting the future is not an easy task. Future prediction requires considerable erudition, creativity, wisdom, and insight. This is because the future will certainly not be the same as it is today, and if we use what we see around us today to predict the future we will not add into play components from both the past and the future. Futures studies is a rapidly expanding area of research and it has ever increasing impacts on success, both for organizations and individuals, due to the fact that society is so rapidly changing.  There are numerous applications for future studies. The stock market, fashion market, advertising market is some of the areas where futurology is used. Determining what are likely to become successful and what are not requires the ability to use future studies correctly. Many predictions of futurologists have been turned into reality. We have also seen many of the science fiction authors have made technological predictions correct. The study is much more difficult to master and its general principles must be learned through study. However, it must be mentioned here that the methodology and knowledge are much less proven as compared to natural science or even social science like sociology, economics, and political science.

History

In general, we can say that futurism is found in each and every person in this world. Everybody tries to see and predict their future and understand change. Futuristic approach has always been there in us since the primitive time. However, Futurology as an organized discipline came in to the picture arose during World War II and in the postwar period. To be precise Futures studies emerged as an academic discipline in the mid-1960s. Some Intellectual foundation of the discipline however believed to be found in the mid-19th century. Famous futurist Wendell Bell, a Professor Emeritus of Sociology at Yale University stated that Auguste Comte's discussion of the meta patterns of social change presages futures studies as a scholarly dialogue. Today the study of future gets a global recognition in the form of professional pursuit, scientific theory, research methods, and a great variety of different educational curricula. Various college courses and programs on the future are offered at numerous schools worldwide. The first graduate program in futures studies was introduced in United States. The M.S. Program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston–Clear Lake was introduced in the year 1975. A year later another the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures was introduced at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Reil Miller in this essay “Futures studies, scenarios, and the “possibility-space” approach” stated that future studies and history share five key axioms. The axioms are as follows:  

First, whether looking to the past or the future, as the analysis moves farther away from the present uncertainty increases across a number of dimensions and the accuracy with which we can explain how a particular aspect of daily life is reproduced diminishes. In part this is because the quality of the raw data declines and in part because the number of potential sources or causes that might account for change (or stasis) is, in most circumstances, bound to grow over time.

The second joint axiom is that the scale and pace of change need to be evaluated in both absolute and relative terms. Everyone knows that change from a very low base can be quite small in absolute terms but huge relative to the starting point or when the starting point is already large even a big absolute change may be small in relative terms. A good example of this is the projected population changes for India, which starts from a base of over 1 billion. As a result, despite a slower recent growth rate, India’s total population in 2050 could be 500 million higher than in 2000 – overtaking China.

      

The third axiom is that over time, whether looking backwards or forwards, many of the metrics and benchmarks we use to assess change also change. Not so long ago the metric for speed was not miles or kilometres per hour but the speed of a horse measured in furlongs – 1/8 of a mile. When it comes to benchmarks, the old Model T Ford was considered dangerous at over 45 mph. Today most cars are safe at much higher speeds. Judging speeds today using the metrics and benchmarks of the equestrian or Model Teras makes no sense.

Fourth, and even trickier to detect and apply, are the more subjective, capacity-related shifts. The relevance and calibration of different measures and perceptions of events in daily life are shaped by a whole range of factors like the degree of literacy, the extent to which values are shared within the community, and the ease of access to information. Even if we are aware of these factors they make comparisons over time difficult. For instance, can we compare the widespread fear of nuclear war in the 1960s to people’s fear of genetically modified organisms in the first decade of the 21st century?

There is a fifth axiom to bring the abstract potential for infinite variation down to a manageable range. In order to reduce the “degrees of freedom” in interpreting the past or imagining the future we turn to the facts and reasonable assumptions that restrict what is possible. First assumptions have to be made about uncertainly (the first axiom). Aliens could land on Earth tomorrow or we could be hit by an extinction scale meteor and all efforts to imagine future possibilities would be rendered moot and null. Futurists, particularly those interested in policy issues, do not need to devote too much attention to this kind of uncertainty since, though such exogenous events might happen, there is nothing much to say right now about the day after. 

As for axioms two, three and four, absolute, relative and qualitative changes are all constrained, often in different ways, but nevertheless limited by key attributes of the physical, social and intellectual world.

Characteristics of a Futurology

Futurology as a discipline has certain characteristics. These characteristics distinguish futurology as a distinct field of discipline from many others disciplines and fields of study. Following are the characteristics.

•       Futurology sees change as the norm and believes that change is rapid.
•       Futurology sees events as interrelated and not separate and unconnected.
•       Futurology takes a holistic perspective in considering change.
•       Futurology believes that there are many Alternative Futures.

      Futurology distinguishes between Possible, Probable, & Preferable Futures:

• Possible Futures: anything that could happen in the future.
• Probable Futures: what is most likely or probable to happen in the future.
• Preferable Futures: what is most desirable or preferable to happen in the future.

• The Goal of futurology is to make preferable or desirable futures more probable, by visualizing clearly what we want to create.

• Futurology commits energy, resources, time, and our lives to create the desired future world.

• Futurology helps people realize that there are always Consequences to what we do.

• Futurology helps people realize the importance of ideas, values, and positive visions in creating a better world future.

• Futurology empowers people to choose and act responsibly and consciously in the present as those actions will help in creating the future.

• Futurology accepts the Importance of Short, Medium, and Long-Range Planning.

Time Periods for Studying the Future

Futurology is the study of time in the future. Futurology is studied by various futurologist in different time period. However, a standard classification of time periods of studying futurology has been provided by Earl Joseph. These periods are

•       Near Term Future:             up to one year from now.
•       Short Range Future:           one to five years from now.
•       Middle Range Future:         five to twenty years from now.
•       Long Range Future:            twenty to fifty years from now.
•       Far Future:                        fifty plus years from now.

We must keep in mind that past-present-& future are connected and only way to change the future in desired way is to act now. Present is the foundation for future. A right action taken now will definitely change the world in the future in the right way.

Assumptions of Futurists

The subject matter of futurology is based on certain assumptions. These assumptions differ from futurologist to futurologist. However, a survey of 108 futurists found the following assumptions are shared by them with equal emphasis:

• We are in the midst of a historical transformation. Current times are not just part of normal history.

• Multiple perspectives are at heart of futures studies, including unconventional thinking, internal critique, and cross-cultural comparison.

• Consideration of alternatives. Futurists do not see themselves as value-free forecasters, but instead aware of multiple possibilities.

• Participatory futures. Futurists generally see their role as liberating the future in each person, and creating enhanced public ownership of the future. This is true worldwide.

• Long term policy transformation. While some are more policy-oriented than others, almost all believe that the work of futurism is to shape public policy, so it consciously and explicitly takes into account the long term.

• Part of the process of creating alternative futures and of influencing public (corporate or international) policy is internal transformation. At international meetings, structural and individual factors are considered equally important.

• Complexity. Futurists believe that a simple one-dimensional or single-discipline orientation is not satisfactory. Trans-disciplinary approaches that take complexity seriously are necessary. System thinking, particularly in its evolutionary dimension, is also crucial.

• Futurists are motivated by change. They are not content merely to describe or forecast. They desire an active role in world transformation.

• They are hopeful for a better future as a "strange attractor".

• Most believe they are pragmatists in this world, even as they imagine and work for another. Futurists have a long term perspective.

• Sustainable futures, understood as making decisions that do not reduce future options that include policies on nature, gender and other accepted paradigms. This applies to corporate futurists and the NGO. Environmental sustainability is reconciled with the technological, spiritual and post-structural ideals. Sustainability is not a "back to nature" ideal, but rather inclusive of technology and culture.

Methodologies of Futurology

A wide range of models and methods are applied by futurologist in the form of theory and practice in the study of futurology. These methods are adopted from other academic disciplines. Futurology as an interdisciplinary subject derives these methods mainly from the disciplines like geography, economics, engineering, sociology, , history, mathematics, technology, psychology,  tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, and aspects of theology (specifically, the range of future beliefs). World Futurist Society in "Art of Forecasting" mentioned a list of number of methods used by today's futurists in determining the future. These methods clearly show that futurology put strong emphasis on scientific research, data collection, empirical prediction, logical reasoning, and the use of technology. According to the list the main methods adopted by futurologists are:

•       Trend Projection
•       Scenarios
•       Consulting Others
•       Models
•       Simulations
•       Computer Simulations

Cornish in his book “Futurists,” states that futurists use scientific and rational methods to understand the future. He also provides a synoptic list of the most common methods used by futurologists:

•       Scanning
•       Trend Analysis
•       Trend Monitoring
•       Trend Projection
•       Scenarios
•       Polling
•       Brainstorming
•       Modeling and Simulations
•       Gaming
•       Historical Analysis
•       Visioning

Theories and Ideologies in Futurology

There are certain theories and ideologies inherent in futurology. These are common theories and ideologies however considered extremely important from the perspective of future studies. The theories and ideologies are-

Globalization: Globalization is a process of interaction and integration among the people, companies, and governments of different nations, a process driven by international trade and investment and aided by information technology. This process has effects on the environment, on culture, on political systems, on economic development and prosperity, and on human physical well-being in societies around the world.  Futurologists consider globalization as good thing and   according to them it should be embraced.

Accelerative Change: We are now living in world which is changing in almost all facets of human life rapidly. This is going to be a continuous process and it will continue in the future as well. According to futurologist we need to find ways to accommodate and adopt ourselves with this change and accept the reality of rapid change.

The Technological Transformation of Humanity: Technology is now indispensible for Human race. Technology is now integrated with humanity. The development and up gradation of computer and mobile technology has tremendous impact on human life and the society. It is believe that Biotechnology will soon transform humanity. According to futurologist these developments are positive and leading to increased self-empowerment and we should pursue them.

The Adventure into Outer Space: Futurologists believe that as result of superior technological advancement human race will one day travel into and colonize outer space. They consider this situation as a positive expression of human curiosity and human evolution. And therefore it should be supported embraced.

Armageddon: The ideology of Armageddon in futurology believes that a final day will come when we will be approaching the apocalypse and Judgment Day.  According to futurologist we should be ready for this. We should prepare ourselves for these events and the end of the world

Future of Futurology

Thinking about the future has always been a part of human society. We can here give the finest examples of soothsayers and prophets. However, Future Studies as an academic research field emerged in the past four to five decades. With the rapid change in all the aspects of human life the importance of future prediction is also equally getting importance. Technology is also bringing change to all the countries of the world in all the major areas including political, economic, Diplomatic. A dark past with two world wars, cold war and nuclear threat is now instigating positively all the countries, business organization and other important associations to understand time, change and future.   We all want a positive change and wish to see a better future. Futurology therefore has a great importance as a discipline. Importance of right predication is felt everywhere. The emergence of the futurology as a discipline is complementing this importance. Futurology is now an expanding field of study and gaining popularity. Futurology being an interdisciplinary subject has a vast applicability across multiple domains. As a new discipline the theoretical foundation of futurology is believed to be not adequate however it is expected that very soon futurology will evolve as a complete and strong discipline and benefit people of accurate predictions of future.